Kin and Windows 7 Phone … You’ve doomed us all

We can armchair quarterback the Kin disaster all we want, but it seems there is some real fallout going on over this little blunder. There are more comparisons to the Vista blunder than you can count. And it seems some of the good folks who were at the helm during the long delays and then features cuts of Vista and the Kin are at the wheel for Windows Phone 7. I’m not really sure that’s instilling confidence.

As one person from Microsoft puts it:

http://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-employees-embarrassed-over-kin-failure

the same person who headed up the Kin project is now leading WP7, which is leaving employees on uneasy ground after the Kin launch.

But no matter how you look at it, MS is struggling to find their way in the mobile market and many people think Windows Phone 7 might already be doomed. And in some ways I agree. Microsoft is taking way too long to get their product out the door. Regardless of why and who the Kin was marketed to, it was pulled and discontinued. Why should consumers feel confident with buying into the 7 series when the very same thing could happen? If sales don’t hit the right numbers within the first few weeks/months is the 7 series going to get kicked to the curb and users will be left with a useless device? Apple has sold nearly 2 million iPhone4 units and well over 2 million iPad units. The Droid has over 100,000 activations a day. And the Blackberry is still wildly popular and shows no signs of stopping. Simply put, Microsoft is millions of units in the hole and they don’t even have a competitor in the race yet.

Some say Microsoft can easily make up that ground because their device and OS will be superior. I don’t believe it will be, but putting that argument aside, how much is it going to cost people to switch? Microsoft owns the desktop space and it’s hard for people to switch to something else because of the investment they’ve made in software. Plus, do their favorite apps exist on the new platform? Microsoft is now facing the exact opposite problem in the mobile space. People have invested money in the hardware and software of their current platform and it’s going to be too expensive to switch *to* Windows. I’ve easily spent $75-100 (I really don’t want to know the exact figure) on software for my Touch. The people I work with have spent about the same. Even if the Windows Phone was better are we all going to throw that money out the window and jump to a new platform? And do those apps and games exist in this new environment? Where are the 200,000 apps for the 7 series? What is the compelling reason switch? And considering the bad track record Microsoft currently has with products (Vista, Kin, Courier – even thought it wasn’t a product people believed it was and they wanted it), who has the confidence to make the switch?

http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Windows-Phone-7-is-doomed/1278093601

I don’t think that applications will be a significant factor in smartphones. Most things will be browser based. In any case, I think Microsoft should do a deal with Nokia.They are a perfect match.

The MS phone could be brilliant, but I disagree with this comment and feel that apps will make or break a platform. Many things will be browser based, but so much more will be app based because it gives the user a much better experience. And the list of incredible apps is growing everyday, but they’re growing for platforms other than Windows Mobile.

MS is WAY behind and as I see it they really don’t have a solid plan for digging themselves out of this hole. iPhone and Droid are gaining massive market share and Microsoft is still on the sidelines tying their shoes. At this rate the game will be over before MS even gets on the field.

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